Situational Awareness in an Age of Crisis

Part I: Analysis of Macro Conditions

I write this because most people overlook situational awareness in their analysis of the world's happenings. We are not trained to engage in this process from a young age. Instead, people tend to rely on commentators from television or newspapers for their analysis of global and national affairs. This often leads to the public underestimating threats.

While we go to work, come home, consume media, and perhaps recreate on weekends, there are individuals paid to perform threat analysis for various government agencies and private corporations. Much of the work related to these assessments is kept hidden from the public to maintain calm and order.

My aim is to provide you with a framework for your own assessments, both macro and micro (Part II), of the environment around you, whether that’s the immediate landscape or something as broad as global economics and national security.

Why This Matters

The entire purpose of the Collapse Curriculum website is to create a space for discussing and planning our response to current and impending crises. We live in a time of swift and significant changes, facing major threats in the near future.

Most people remain in denial or are entirely unaware. Here are some observations about our current situation:

The Environment

Even those who understand the severity of environmental and climate breakdown are not acting on this knowledge. Few discuss preparing our communities and ourselves for what’s to come, a fact I find deeply disturbing. No one can adequately prepare for this on their own.

Institutional Legitimacy

People are questioning the legitimacy of long-trusted institutions, undermining the fabric of order. While this order may contribute to the problems we face, its erosion or absence without necessary replacements would present many more issues.

The Threat of Social Violence

We live in an era where people do not accept election outcomes and storm capitol buildings. In the U.S., society is heavily armed and increasingly hostile, with threats from militias and other groups.

Organized Crime

Networks of organized crime are present even in unexpected places. Criminal enterprises often fund movements and militias, and a breakdown of institutional order would leave an unprepared population vulnerable to these groups.

Corruption

Government officials and significant figures in private sectors are often bribed to overlook or engage in illicit activities.

Global Conflicts

Wars and rumors of wars are commonplace, indicating shifting power dynamics globally.

Assessing and Responding to Threats

To navigate these threats, we must start with the basics of situational awareness, moving from there to more complex analyses and responses.

A Definition

Situational awareness (SA) is the ability to perceive, comprehend, and project the elements of the environment around you. It involves understanding what is happening, recognizing its significance, and predicting future status or actions.

Fundamentals of Situational Awareness

Perception

Perception is the initial step in developing situational awareness. It involves actively gathering information from the environment through all available senses and tools, operating on both tactical (micro) and strategic (macro) levels.

Recognizing Broader Contexts (Macro)

• Understanding geopolitical dynamics, economic trends, and environmental changes on a national or global scale.

• Monitoring news, reports, and data from credible sources to stay informed about broader issues affecting security, economy, and the environment.

• Identifying large-scale patterns and trends that could impact regional stability or global ecosystems.

Identifying Major Threats and Opportunities (Macro)

• Analyzing the implications of political instability, economic shifts, and environmental degradation.

• Identifying strategic resources, such as energy supplies, critical infrastructure, and technological advancements.

• Recognizing emerging threats, such as climate change impacts, economic crises, or geopolitical tensions.

Comprehension

Comprehension involves processing and making sense of the information gathered during the perception phase. It is about understanding what the perceived elements mean in the given context, both immediately and in a broader sense.

Projection

Projection involves anticipating future events and developments based on the current understanding of the situation. It is about looking ahead and preparing for what might happen next, both in immediate and broader contexts.

Anticipating Long-Term Trends and Events (Macro)

• Predicting the long-term impacts of climate change, economic shifts, and geopolitical changes.

• Considering future scenarios based on current global trends and planning strategic responses.

• Foreseeing potential global challenges, such as resource shortages, population growth, and technological disruptions, and preparing for them.

Strategic Planning (Macro)

• Formulating plans to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.

• Planning for localized sustainable living methods, resource management, and local cooperation.

• Developing long-term strategies to respond to broader challenges.

Techniques for Enhancing Macro Situational Awareness

A. Observational Techniques

1. Environmental

   • Regularly monitoring environmental changes and ecological indicators.

   • Tracking climate data and natural resource levels.

2. Geopolitical Analysis

   • Following global news and international relations reports.

   • Analyzing policy changes and their potential impacts.

   • Monitoring conflict zones and political instability.

3. Economic Monitoring

   • Keeping track of economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates.

   • Analyzing market trends and financial reports.

   • Understanding the global supply chain and trade dynamics.

4. Technological Surveillance

   • Staying updated on technological advancements and emerging technologies.

   • Assessing the impact of technology on society, economy, and security.

   • Identifying potential technological threats and opportunities.

B. Analytical Techniques

1. Trend Analysis

   • Identifying and interpreting long-term trends in various sectors.

   • Using historical data to predict future developments.

   • Analyzing patterns and correlations across different domains.

2. Risk Assessment

   • Evaluating potential threats and their likelihood.

   • Assessing the impact of identified risks on various scales.

   • Developing risk mitigation strategies.

3. Scenario Planning

   • Creating and analyzing different future scenarios based on current data.

   • Identifying potential challenges and opportunities in each scenario.

   • Planning responses and strategies for each potential future.

4. Systems Thinking

   • Understanding the interconnections between different global systems.

   • Analyzing how changes in one system can affect others.

   • Using holistic approaches to respond to complex global issues.

C. Communication and Collaboration

1. Information Sharing

   • Establishing networks for sharing information and intelligence.

   • Using digital platforms for real-time information exchange.

   • Promoting transparency and open communication channels.

2. Interdisciplinary Collaboration

   • Encouraging collaboration between experts in different fields.

   • Forming multidisciplinary teams to address complex problems.

   • Sharing knowledge and best practices across sectors.

3. Community Engagement

   • Involving local communities in situational awareness efforts.

   • Promoting education and awareness programs.

   • Encouraging grassroots initiatives and local observations.

D. Technological Tools

1. Data Analytics

   • Using big data analytics to process and interpret large datasets.

   • Employing machine learning and AI for predictive analysis.

   • Visualizing data through graphs, charts, and interactive maps.

2. Communication Technologies

   • Utilizing secure communication platforms for information exchange.

   • Implementing early warning systems for rapid alerts.

   • Using mobile and internet technologies to reach broader audiences.

Do you have an assessment and plan to deal with the coming threats and crisis?

What I want you to take away from this post is that we have work to do. The governments are not going to save us; their primary mission is to maintain the status quo, a path that leads to inevitable collapse. Don’t get me wrong, they will be useful in providing security, disaster response, aid and whatnot. But they aren’t going to be adequate. Risk assessments paint a grim future where our unpreparedness will leave us devastated because no one dares to speak the truth.

We must take this work into our own hands, starting within our communities, even if they are small at first. This work won't be done for us. We must find the courage to speak out, loudly and boldly, against the tide of denial and complacency.