The Republic is Over

The 250 Year Lifecycle of Empire Arrives on Time in 2026.

Happy New Year everyone, and what a shit show 2026 already is. By week two, we’ve invaded a foreign nation unilaterally with no real pretext other than oil; a federal militarized police agent killed an unarmed mother of three for driving away, and then the administration publicly labeled the victim a terrorist; we’re plotting the take over of Greenland; and all signs point towards some sort of invasion of Iran. Oh joy!

Here at Collapse Curriculum we often talk about how and why civilizations of the past have collapsed and compare it to the present moment for insights. This sort of analysis is now becoming pretty mainstream. Of all people, conservative podcast host Tucker Carlson recently joined the chorus, announcing that “the republic is over” and the United States is moving into the strongman imperial stage of civilization. Take a look at the clip below, and then we’ll discuss what he’s referring to.

We’ve Stopped Pretending

Carlson suggests that our unilateral invasion of Venezuela without any pretense of international law, humanitarian motives, democracy, or moral high ground signals a shift away from the world order that was created after WWII. It signals a new era of “honesty” about intentions, but an abandonment of professed ideals.

More shocking was his observation that this also marks the end of legislative importance and democratic institutions and the beginning of an empire controlled by a solitary leader… a caesar.

When Tucker Carlson suggests we have an idea of what happens next, I’m guessing he’s alluding to Oswald Spengler’s concept of Caesarism.

In Spengler’s The Decline of the West, Caesarism is the final political stage of a civilization where the rule of law is replaced by the personal power of “strongmen” or “Caesars” because the formal institutions of the state no longer function. Constitutional forms are maintained as mere shells while the real power is wielded by individuals through executive decree. Sound familiar?

The Winter Phase

In Spengler’s theory, the “winter phase” is the final, irreversible stage of a civilization’s life cycle. It is a time of hardening, intellectualism, and materialism that inevitably leads to final dissolution.

Spengler describes urbanization and rootlessness. Life shifts from the “soil” of the countryside to massive, cosmopolitan world-cities (megalopolises). The population becomes a rootless, formless mass driven by practical concerns rather than shared cultural values or spiritual beliefs.

Spiritual and artistic creativity dries up. The ideals of the earlier culture phase are lost, and society becomes completely given over to the pursuit of wealth, comfort, and practical matters.

The power of abstract money dominates society, leading to a bureaucratic plutocracy where the affluent benefit at the expense of others.

Democratic institutions become corrupt and ineffective, paving the way for the rise of charismatic strongmen or “Caesars” who rule by force-politics rather than the rule of law.

The imperialism and expansion become the norm. It becomes a rigid, compulsive imperialism that takes possession of lands and peoples without facing significant opposition. Spengler noted that Roman “world domination” was a sign of its decline, not its strength.

The overall mood is one of spiritual exhaustion, a declining birth rate, and a sense that the ultimate goals of the culture’s “soul” will never be reached.

For Spengler, this phase is a period of terminal decline, where a once-vibrant culture becomes an “empty husk” waiting to be crushed by external pressures or simply fade away.

Sounds spot on.

Do Civilizations Have a 250 Year Life Cycle?

Sir John Bagot Glubb, a British general and historian who authored the 1978 essay The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival is frequently cited by modern commentators for his theory that empires have a predictable life cycle of approximately 250 years.

He noted that regardless of technology or geography, a dominant political entity tends to last roughly 10 generations, the time it takes for the initial “pioneer” spirit to be replaced by generational “decadence”.

Glubb calculated an average based on the lifespan of 11 specific empires (e.g., Assyria, Rome, Britain). This is sometimes noted as a point of controversy as critics claim his choices were selective.

While Spengler’s theory has a lifecycle of 1,000 years for a culture, the “civilization” period is also about 200-300 years for him. There seems to be plenty of examples that support this timeframe.

Complexity Theory

Historians generally don’t strictly abide by life cycle theories, but look instead to complexity theory, which holds that growing civilizations inevitably fail to address the problems created by ever increasing complexities, leading to their decline and collapse. A noted voice in this field is Arnold Toynbee. In his model, a "creative minority" that once inspired followers, transitions into a "dominant minority" that relies on coercion to rule.

This leads to the formation of a "Universal State," a seemingly stable but actually rigid empire that eventually alienates both internal and external populations, leading to eventual disintegration and chaos.

While the time-scales and specifics differ between cyclical and complexity models, the underlying theme of moral decay, loss of creative leadership, and the rise of coercive power is a common thread that permeates these historical theories.

It’s hard not to see the present conditions in the United States as paralleling many past collapsing empires. For the everyday person this can seem scary as hell. The good news is we aren’t the first to experience this phase of empire. Far from it. It it the rule, not the exception. This means there are many lessons to be learned from how people made it through as well. Stay tuned for more on that.

In the meantime, keep your focus on the present moment. Look around the room, or the space you are in. Realize you are safe. Focus on the important things, like family, friends, fun, creativity, and finding meaning in the small but magical things all around you. Don’t spend all your time worrying about things you can’t control. Be there for each other.