Since all i do is grow food and herbal medicines for “fun”, I was heartened that this survival topic kept coming up in your piece. My front yard garden is my dystopian contribution I guess.
What's growing in the garden, Doc? I'm keenly interested to learn more about the herbal medicine side of things, with an emphasis on "the stuff that's been proven to work" and not the woo folklore stuff.
I have a ton growing including lemongrass, lemon balm, mint, lavendar, kale, fava beans, strawberries, lettuce, cabbage, ground cherries, etc etc.
People have been eating wholesome, unprocessed, anti-inflammatory, nutrient-rich, garden foods since the beginning of time.
If demanding evidence, there should also be studies proving that “so-called foods” from mcdonalds and wendys are good for us. It is clearly not real food yet people still eat it. I do not need a study proving it is garbage. Just look at how sick people are.
With the same reasoning, I do not believe that a randomized double blind control study is required to prove the benefits of natural, home-grown plant foods. If we eat healthy natural foods, we experience all the benefits. Period. 👩🏻🌾👩🏻🌾
In evolutionary terms, humans are ‘group selected’, we can’t survive outside of community. Reorganizing into communities of mutual aid will be vital to future survival, with or without modern technology. Those already living beyond the “secure” walls of modernity may do better assuming they’re not isolated on low-lying islands.
You forgot to mention that all of this will be happening while the human population plummets due to food scarcity, climate change and resource depletion, all leading to chaos. It won’t be pretty.
Hard question. I think it can be different for everyone. But like any other situation, it needs to be processed. I’ve had moments of despair. But I also have accepted that we don’t know everything, including how things will ultimately shake out. I focus on the things I can do something about, including writing here and building community where I live. At the end of the day, I believe life knows what it’s doing. Meaning is in the now, so live there. Hope that helps. Glad to offer other resources. There are other pages that focus on this element of collapse… the spiritual one.
Thanks Justin, this is fascinating, if a bit of a bummer :) Did the author (sorry blanking on his name now) view the stages as sequential or simultaneous?
Would you ever have any interest in writing a guest post or being interviewed for my substack about collapse of the healthcare sector?
I believe the stages are indicative of severity. He says the first few stages can be survived. The last few must be avoided entirely. But I think they can all be eroding at the same time, and the earlier stages can make the latter worse.
Yes, I’d love to collaborate. Interview sounds fun.
That makes sense, it definitely seems like there are some aspects of stage 3 and 4 that feel like they are near, if not happening already. I'll DM you so we can chat more on what collaboration could look like.
With Trump as the next President, and with Project 25 abandoning all climate controls and boosting fossil production, my first thought was he would accelerate climate catastrophes.
But now I also see that Trump plans to crash the economy so his billionaire backers can pick up the pieces of the economy on the cheap, and that suggests a collapse in economic activity, so a reduction in fossil consumption and emissions, especially in a high-consumption economy like the U.S.
It would be very interesting to try to understand the net effects of Trump policies on an American economy in recession/depression, but also with all climate regulation trashed. Will emissions rise or fall?
Either way Trump's crash might be the trigger to a wider economic collapse, and not just in America, in which case the recession may become permanent and just meld into a long term crash in American society. That would suggest a timescale, certainly within the next 12 months.
But Dimitri Orlov denies climate change itself. He suggested we learn how to tackle donkeys, horses and cows, as future transport options, which I really like, as a realistic option.
Seems like in the article on the 6th stage of collapse he was talking about water near the equator being hotter than a hot tub because of climate change.
Ah ok, I don't know what to make of it. Yet the institution I work for, had invited James Howard Kunstler, who is also an outspoken climate-change non-believer. And while on that trail, I had come across various interviews of Dimitri Orlov where he spoke of collapse but totally sidelined climate change. His scene is totally based on energy, and where all it may come from, during the incoming global scarcity.
Kunstler was recently invited to speak to the Club of Rome's Canadian chapter. He was bellicose and unimpressive in this regard. Though i still believe he is spot-on prescient in many ways. But he's human and deeply flawed like the rest of us. His climate change stance is moronic, and you wonder where this nonsense comes from in his particular head. One of the commentators after his talk nailed it though. She identified his as "A Disruptor." It's a key part of his MO, his business model. When you understand this, you understand why he must be contrarian to the point of stupidity at some junctures. It's all about stirring the meat.
Hi Atavist - I too was present at that live video meet... and remember clearly how certain members were trying to attack him and bring him down, because he had a different bunch of ideas and thoughts. You see, both sides belong to the same society. One that is clearly in trouble and not going to last, as they knew it, when they were young. As for "stirring the meat" indeed many self-styled experts do it as so does JHK.
Solutions aren't "uncertain." They don't exist. Not for us, by us. The planet meanwhile - our true God - has other ideas about solutions independent of us.
I mean in the sense of larger societal solutions to today's predicament, granting that it is indeed a predicament and there won't be any altering of the trajectory anymore than there was when i was 20 and thought 'we' could alter it. Solutions for individuals to navigate the inevitable? I think there are those. I don't think we will know them until they are in the rearview mirror, however, with it being a case-by-case scenario contingent on much blind fortune.
I very much agree. I’m more interested in trying to navigate the inevitable and don’t place hope in trajectory change. I do believe there are ways to be proactive, so that you are able to be in a position to navigate and learn what you can only learn when it happens.
Yeah, we've been about as proactive as we can be on my end here. It's interesting, this whole idea of altering larger trajectories. It's kinda like the people who would like to "defeat" death, or at least, hugely expand our lifespans. It doesn't take a whole lot of imagination to understand that this would be 1) entirely unnatural and 2) a disaster of great significance overall. Anymore, i expect the same is true of trying to extend the life of a civilization beyond what is its natural course for its model. In fact, we have managed to do this to a so far modest degree by finding ways to string out our oil supply, tight shale oils being the latest example. And what do we see? The planet burning for one thing. A sixth great extinction that now threatens even insects. No, there is absolutely a right time for things to die, civilizations included.
Correct. I like the Limits to Growth model for that very reason. It shows that by expanding the amount of resources we projected we’d find in BAU, that we delayed collapse, but made it far more catastrophic (BAU2).
All six stages are upon us in concert now, to varying degrees, and to varying degrees depending on where your community is located. The planet is not likely under longterm threat from this brief iteration of us, this current suicidal techno-industrial model (and hey, all the models become a suicide ultimately. As the natural order of things.) It IS interesting to contemplate what is going to happen mind-you when we are no longer able to service all the nuclear installments and they melt down, something that is assured unless we have the foresight to shut them in. Which we won't, because we are never going to admit as a body politic that we are going down the tubes. Why we won't be preparing for collapse, period. You can't prepare for something you refuse to acknowledge. At any rate, even in the event of nuclear meltdown, i still think the planet will come to life again. It will just take that much longer, ala the aftermath of the epic asteroid strikes.
All the different components are addressed by retreating to your local economy and community, and one will rapidly find out what is sustainable and what is not, and at the same time find out who are your real friends through an exchange economy.
I only had time to give this a quick read, Justin, but it seems well-informed, thorough, logical and rational. Unfortunately, the new regime is likely to speed these scenarios up.
I enjoy reading your stuff, but at this point in my life I find the idea that humans will prepare for….well…anything, on more than a superficial level to be kinda silly.
This species has proven time again over thousands of years to be reactive, shortsighted, siloed, delusional, self- deceiving, greedy. And more. We prefer greed, violence, hoarding, self interest.
Personally, I think the “worst-case” model is still too conservative. We will undoubtedly kill ourselves and every other living species if it means one more dime to be made.
Fair enough. For what it’s worth, one thing I consider is how past collapses have happened (see part I). Power structures crumble. But people in smaller groups tend to be more resilient and cooperative in times of crisis. I have no crystal ball, and in fact mostly focus on what I’m doing now. I work with others in my local community on preparing. Can’t control anything else.
If baboons, one of our closest relatives, is anything to go by, their social structures and general behaviour changes according to the area they live, the dangers they face, and the resources available. They are the widest spread population of apes in Africa, and they can range from total selfish and violent assholes, to gentle and caring sweeties. Cue: when resources are plenty and predators are few they are at peak assholeness.
I was watching a documentary about baboons last night. It struck me, as I believe that foremost we are subject to laws of nature, whether we know it or not. So I tend to look at everything we do under this light. For example, I think, just like all other animals, we are programmed to avoid procreation in hostile conditions, hence birth rates fall in urban environments, and women stop wanting to have babies, because urbanisation is deemed hostile by nature.
Does technological and energy collapse, be included in the economic category? I mean, that all the wonderful technology we take for granted now, will not be of any use, without constant supply of energy.
Personally I'm going with Venus. The positive feedback loop will release every single atom of carbon stored damn near every place on earth, save those deep deep deep in the mantle.
Nice summary. I'm wondering what would happen if you threw in the wild card of the ongoing pandemic. Send me an e-mail if you would like to toss around some ideas about that and perhaps co-write an article.
What a time to be alive
Indeed
Since all i do is grow food and herbal medicines for “fun”, I was heartened that this survival topic kept coming up in your piece. My front yard garden is my dystopian contribution I guess.
Keep up the good work! Connect with others in the community where possible.
I see no other way than grass roots communitarianism replacing all the other horrid -isms.
Grass roots... I see what you did there 😂
(sorry, got to laugh otherwise it's all too depressing)
What's growing in the garden, Doc? I'm keenly interested to learn more about the herbal medicine side of things, with an emphasis on "the stuff that's been proven to work" and not the woo folklore stuff.
I have a ton growing including lemongrass, lemon balm, mint, lavendar, kale, fava beans, strawberries, lettuce, cabbage, ground cherries, etc etc.
People have been eating wholesome, unprocessed, anti-inflammatory, nutrient-rich, garden foods since the beginning of time.
If demanding evidence, there should also be studies proving that “so-called foods” from mcdonalds and wendys are good for us. It is clearly not real food yet people still eat it. I do not need a study proving it is garbage. Just look at how sick people are.
With the same reasoning, I do not believe that a randomized double blind control study is required to prove the benefits of natural, home-grown plant foods. If we eat healthy natural foods, we experience all the benefits. Period. 👩🏻🌾👩🏻🌾
In evolutionary terms, humans are ‘group selected’, we can’t survive outside of community. Reorganizing into communities of mutual aid will be vital to future survival, with or without modern technology. Those already living beyond the “secure” walls of modernity may do better assuming they’re not isolated on low-lying islands.
You forgot to mention that all of this will be happening while the human population plummets due to food scarcity, climate change and resource depletion, all leading to chaos. It won’t be pretty.
Great point. Thanks for pointing this out. In my defense I covered population more extensively in part II of this series. https://collapsecurriculum.substack.com/p/present-day-trends-of-a-collapsing
There are many aspects of collapse one could talk. It's easy to exclude something in any given conversation. Cheers.
How does one avoid despair when reading this?
Guess thinking that Gaia will be around long after we are gone is one way to cope. ??
Hard question. I think it can be different for everyone. But like any other situation, it needs to be processed. I’ve had moments of despair. But I also have accepted that we don’t know everything, including how things will ultimately shake out. I focus on the things I can do something about, including writing here and building community where I live. At the end of the day, I believe life knows what it’s doing. Meaning is in the now, so live there. Hope that helps. Glad to offer other resources. There are other pages that focus on this element of collapse… the spiritual one.
Thanks Justin, this is fascinating, if a bit of a bummer :) Did the author (sorry blanking on his name now) view the stages as sequential or simultaneous?
Would you ever have any interest in writing a guest post or being interviewed for my substack about collapse of the healthcare sector?
I believe the stages are indicative of severity. He says the first few stages can be survived. The last few must be avoided entirely. But I think they can all be eroding at the same time, and the earlier stages can make the latter worse.
Yes, I’d love to collaborate. Interview sounds fun.
That makes sense, it definitely seems like there are some aspects of stage 3 and 4 that feel like they are near, if not happening already. I'll DM you so we can chat more on what collaboration could look like.
With Trump as the next President, and with Project 25 abandoning all climate controls and boosting fossil production, my first thought was he would accelerate climate catastrophes.
But now I also see that Trump plans to crash the economy so his billionaire backers can pick up the pieces of the economy on the cheap, and that suggests a collapse in economic activity, so a reduction in fossil consumption and emissions, especially in a high-consumption economy like the U.S.
It would be very interesting to try to understand the net effects of Trump policies on an American economy in recession/depression, but also with all climate regulation trashed. Will emissions rise or fall?
Either way Trump's crash might be the trigger to a wider economic collapse, and not just in America, in which case the recession may become permanent and just meld into a long term crash in American society. That would suggest a timescale, certainly within the next 12 months.
I also was influenced by Dmitry Orlov's 5 Stages of Collapse. Agree with your understanding of "Uncertainty of Solutions"
But Dimitri Orlov denies climate change itself. He suggested we learn how to tackle donkeys, horses and cows, as future transport options, which I really like, as a realistic option.
Seems like in the article on the 6th stage of collapse he was talking about water near the equator being hotter than a hot tub because of climate change.
Ah ok, I don't know what to make of it. Yet the institution I work for, had invited James Howard Kunstler, who is also an outspoken climate-change non-believer. And while on that trail, I had come across various interviews of Dimitri Orlov where he spoke of collapse but totally sidelined climate change. His scene is totally based on energy, and where all it may come from, during the incoming global scarcity.
Kunstler was recently invited to speak to the Club of Rome's Canadian chapter. He was bellicose and unimpressive in this regard. Though i still believe he is spot-on prescient in many ways. But he's human and deeply flawed like the rest of us. His climate change stance is moronic, and you wonder where this nonsense comes from in his particular head. One of the commentators after his talk nailed it though. She identified his as "A Disruptor." It's a key part of his MO, his business model. When you understand this, you understand why he must be contrarian to the point of stupidity at some junctures. It's all about stirring the meat.
Hi Atavist - I too was present at that live video meet... and remember clearly how certain members were trying to attack him and bring him down, because he had a different bunch of ideas and thoughts. You see, both sides belong to the same society. One that is clearly in trouble and not going to last, as they knew it, when they were young. As for "stirring the meat" indeed many self-styled experts do it as so does JHK.
Solutions aren't "uncertain." They don't exist. Not for us, by us. The planet meanwhile - our true God - has other ideas about solutions independent of us.
You mean like a final solution? :-)
I mean in the sense of larger societal solutions to today's predicament, granting that it is indeed a predicament and there won't be any altering of the trajectory anymore than there was when i was 20 and thought 'we' could alter it. Solutions for individuals to navigate the inevitable? I think there are those. I don't think we will know them until they are in the rearview mirror, however, with it being a case-by-case scenario contingent on much blind fortune.
I very much agree. I’m more interested in trying to navigate the inevitable and don’t place hope in trajectory change. I do believe there are ways to be proactive, so that you are able to be in a position to navigate and learn what you can only learn when it happens.
Yeah, we've been about as proactive as we can be on my end here. It's interesting, this whole idea of altering larger trajectories. It's kinda like the people who would like to "defeat" death, or at least, hugely expand our lifespans. It doesn't take a whole lot of imagination to understand that this would be 1) entirely unnatural and 2) a disaster of great significance overall. Anymore, i expect the same is true of trying to extend the life of a civilization beyond what is its natural course for its model. In fact, we have managed to do this to a so far modest degree by finding ways to string out our oil supply, tight shale oils being the latest example. And what do we see? The planet burning for one thing. A sixth great extinction that now threatens even insects. No, there is absolutely a right time for things to die, civilizations included.
Correct. I like the Limits to Growth model for that very reason. It shows that by expanding the amount of resources we projected we’d find in BAU, that we delayed collapse, but made it far more catastrophic (BAU2).
All six stages are upon us in concert now, to varying degrees, and to varying degrees depending on where your community is located. The planet is not likely under longterm threat from this brief iteration of us, this current suicidal techno-industrial model (and hey, all the models become a suicide ultimately. As the natural order of things.) It IS interesting to contemplate what is going to happen mind-you when we are no longer able to service all the nuclear installments and they melt down, something that is assured unless we have the foresight to shut them in. Which we won't, because we are never going to admit as a body politic that we are going down the tubes. Why we won't be preparing for collapse, period. You can't prepare for something you refuse to acknowledge. At any rate, even in the event of nuclear meltdown, i still think the planet will come to life again. It will just take that much longer, ala the aftermath of the epic asteroid strikes.
All the different components are addressed by retreating to your local economy and community, and one will rapidly find out what is sustainable and what is not, and at the same time find out who are your real friends through an exchange economy.
I only had time to give this a quick read, Justin, but it seems well-informed, thorough, logical and rational. Unfortunately, the new regime is likely to speed these scenarios up.
I enjoy reading your stuff, but at this point in my life I find the idea that humans will prepare for….well…anything, on more than a superficial level to be kinda silly.
This species has proven time again over thousands of years to be reactive, shortsighted, siloed, delusional, self- deceiving, greedy. And more. We prefer greed, violence, hoarding, self interest.
Personally, I think the “worst-case” model is still too conservative. We will undoubtedly kill ourselves and every other living species if it means one more dime to be made.
Fair enough. For what it’s worth, one thing I consider is how past collapses have happened (see part I). Power structures crumble. But people in smaller groups tend to be more resilient and cooperative in times of crisis. I have no crystal ball, and in fact mostly focus on what I’m doing now. I work with others in my local community on preparing. Can’t control anything else.
If baboons, one of our closest relatives, is anything to go by, their social structures and general behaviour changes according to the area they live, the dangers they face, and the resources available. They are the widest spread population of apes in Africa, and they can range from total selfish and violent assholes, to gentle and caring sweeties. Cue: when resources are plenty and predators are few they are at peak assholeness.
That’s really interesting. Thanks for sharing that. I may have to look into that more.
I was watching a documentary about baboons last night. It struck me, as I believe that foremost we are subject to laws of nature, whether we know it or not. So I tend to look at everything we do under this light. For example, I think, just like all other animals, we are programmed to avoid procreation in hostile conditions, hence birth rates fall in urban environments, and women stop wanting to have babies, because urbanisation is deemed hostile by nature.
Does technological and energy collapse, be included in the economic category? I mean, that all the wonderful technology we take for granted now, will not be of any use, without constant supply of energy.
Yeah, commercial supply chains.
I'm taking $10 side bets ......Mars or Venus?
Personally I'm going with Venus. The positive feedback loop will release every single atom of carbon stored damn near every place on earth, save those deep deep deep in the mantle.
Nice summary. I'm wondering what would happen if you threw in the wild card of the ongoing pandemic. Send me an e-mail if you would like to toss around some ideas about that and perhaps co-write an article.
Climate brainwashed doomers. How many decades of bs must you swallow.
The only collapse happening is that of the Babylonian banking system of enslavement and their puppet governments.