Someone posted one of those "summer family get-together" photos in the notes here the other day. There must have been 50 people, maybe more, and the caption read to paraphrase "my grandmother did this!" Like this was something to be proud of. I thought, someone should have hung her first. Okay, i didn't think that, but it was a horrifying spectacle to me.
A question for you. Do you think we are right now in rapidly escalating decline (that much seems obvious) or full-on collapse? I mean, how do you know when the boundary is crossed, in real-time? Given that when you fall off a cliff you may just think for span there you are flying. I like the depiction of the abandoned city. A big improvement over how they look right now. The idea of us engineering "a just collapse" is hysterically absurd, by the way. A real leg-slapper. And so "us" of the oil age, so believing we are in control.
Yeah, it’s hard to know exactly where we are. The numbers indicate we are at the top of peak wellness, while other indicators show a vast decline. So it depends on who or what… the ecosystems are collapsing. There may be lagging indicators that affect humans. It’s too complicated to simply say one or the other.
I don’t think anyone is under the illusion (my self included) that we will engineer a just collapse. The idea instead, based on realism, is to work on making even the smallest corner of your world more just, which I think is definitely doable.
One glance at us - just the physical state of us in general - will tell you we are most decidedly not at our peak of wellness. For instance, an exercise that is very interesting as social science is to look at old Woodstock festival footage (mute it even better) for all the shirtless folks. Tell me what you see, how the physical condition breaks down statistically. Today? It would be a sea of lard. A mass physical disaster, the same demographic. Obsolescence, doom, however you might frame it grimly. By that measure alone, we are much worse off than we were. Interestingly, that festival took place during the year of our energy zenith.
The idea of making the smallest corner of the world more just, i’d say we’ve done a very good job of that, actually, in the balance. We’ve come a long way. But like everything else, the ecological and social justice i believe has peaked. Conditions will deteriorate from here. But advocating this as an ethos, my immediate thought is who hasn’t been striving for this all along? The ones impervious to this message is who. Otherwise, it’s intuitive.
Yes, peak wellness is a very broad term, but has more to do with rates, like life expectancy and child mortality. It’s up for dispute, but it’s a subjective metric for sure.
I agree justice as an ethos is intuitive for many. I think the how is where discussion is warranted. I see a lot of doomers who don’t see any point in working on anything. I think there’s meaning in working on things, regardless of the outcome… and I think we can improve the outcome to boot. It’s like people are offended I believe this. I don’t know what to do with that honestly.
"peak wellness… has more to do with rates, like life expectancy and child mortality"
Both of those are in decline in the US, by the way. Life expectancy peaked in 2014 or so, and has declined close to four years since. COVID had something to do with that, but it is continuing to decline, post-COVID.
Child mortality is also increasing. But public health agencies are in denial.
When BC had a sudden-infant-death spike at the beginning of the Fukushima melt-down, the BC Coroners Offices wrote it off as "poor parenting practices." Like, the parents were so glued to TV coverage of Fukushima that they didn't notice their infant stopped breathing?
Various North American "hot spots" had similar Fukushima-correlated infant deaths, but I've been unable to find any formal meta-analysis.
BC sudden-infant-death returned to normal after about ten half-lives of I-131.
I think "we" can improve the outcome too, and i think you do a good job of framing about as grandiose as it will stand - at the community level. But you better have a very small community. Beyond this? "We" are only going to make sure it's as bad as it can get. Look at the data out there. Look all the folks, for instance, feigning concern over climate change whose travel habits suggest their mandate is to have the highest personal ecological footprint possible. Suggest just this one thing to them and in comes the litany of justifications. So yeah, strictly curb the "we" part and i agree.
Yeah, for sure. I think the key is to understand there won’t be a critical mass movement anytime soon, and governments aren’t going to save us. There are people fighting for better environmental policy and I am okay with that. If it saves a strip of trees, it’s done something good. Recognizing that won’t be our salvation is vital though. I spend my off time building a small group working on things like mutual aid.
Thank you, Justin, for your article and opening up this conversation. Agree with you that a critical mass political movement and governments are not going to save us. It may be possible to mitigate mitigate ecological collapse through the use of tools -- usable by people everywhere -- for scaling back the extraction (resource) flows and pollution flows that are creating the cascading ecological crises. My e-book, We Can Reverse the Planet's Eco-crises, shows how to design and use one such tool -- called a regenerative decision-making process. Invite you to take a look: https://www.erikkvam.com/we-can-reverse-the-planets-eco-crises/
Amen to saving the strip of trees. I've been involved with the natural sciences for years, projects ostensibly aimed at conservation included, also my own research on which i've published in the journals. The thing that indeed occurs as you go further down that path is that from within the context of a system that is in essence a death-machine, conservation is a doomed initiative, your initiatives are stemming from and dependent upon the very activities that are killing the place, no exceptions, no alternatives. So what are we saving things for this being the case? For what eventuality? Some mythical point where suddenly the system is of benefit to the living planet? Ain't gonna happen. Rather, we saving what we can for that 'day' on which this system goes down the tubes, most of us die, and the rest of life gets some breathing room once more. Okay, so that's not nothing for sure, i can get behind that.
All of us Homo sapiens are born to a place atop Bullshit Mountain. The real honor goes to folks who try mightily to refuse to add to that growing pile.
“Just Collapse” is an absurd phrase, in line with the nonsensical terms “resilient,” “sustainable,” “350.org”, and on down the line of reality-free euphemisms.
Micro-accomplishments are inherently meaningless to the larger process. Striving to do better within an absurd supersystem is fine, an example of a species trying to live within its inherited limitations, but there is no need to lie about it. The rate and force of collapse of a building overwhelm whatever little attempts are made to shore up supports in the foundation beforehand.
Even as the Titanic was going down, there were better and worse choices and actions made by people. Instead of just dropping by to call people’s opinions bullshit, this is a place for respectful discussion. If you’d like to articulate why ultimately acts of resilience will fail, by all means, do so. Otherwise… nah
“Respect” to me is also like an 80s word, devoid of any content now. What should all of us humans “respect” about what humans have done and are doing to our world? Are those of us who are angry about this state of our inherited world supposed to replace that with equanimity that coats the process of destruction and death with praise for - what, exactly?
The Titanic, of course , hit a point of on-rushing collapse that made any “acts of resilience” utterly superfluous. That’s what the meme of “re-arranging deck chairs” on the Titanic” means.
If you don’t want to hear charges of “bullshit” leveled against you or any of your compadres, then close the discussion, and censor anything remotely critical. I’m open to any and all charges of “bullshit” leveled against me -it’s the price of attempting to communicate.
Respectful means not using language like bullshit to start a conversation you are hoping will be one that is productive. A discussion is an exchange of ideas, not insults and soap boxing. I’m a little surprised this needs explaining. I don’t censor ideas, I censor behavior. You are certainly free to express how you feel or your frustrations, but just try to do it without insults and try to address replies faithfully.
Like with the Titanic… yes of course in understand the metaphor. As I tried to explain, there were still really bad choices, and better choices for the people, even the ones that didn’t make it. I don’t care about the ship. The ship is a goner. But there were people saved from death, and also people were possibly saved from undue suffering. And there is life on the planet that can be saved by our actions today. I discuss this more thoroughly in part III.
This post and linked video are a mini-course on climate change and a great service for all who take the time to study them. UN Food and Agriculture Organization is one of the few places one can inferred information on per capita food production; a decrease in per capita food production is one of the leading indicators of collapse per some of the complex systems studies: https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/d1b7ac97-7ad3-4c95-98fd-3568def8a75c/content
Hi Justin, My name is Michael Campi and I just came across your page. I think it's a great idea, and I have a question for you. I used to have a page called Fitness for the Apocalypse. The focus was on practical fitness for an uncertain future. What I am wondering is would you be interested in cross posting some articles when I get them going again? I currently offer tips on Tuesday's as part of a section I call The Right Now Club. I write at https://michaelcampi.substack.com/. I look forward to hearing back if you're interested.
That would be great. Connecting our audiences would be great as well. Maybe we could swap a few cross posts. I have one on the benefits of rucking. I’ve written about creating a ruck club to build skills, fitness and community. Here’s a few:
Another excellent dive into the realm of collapse.
Justin and I differ on the issue of extinction, I'm firmly of the opinion that our days are numbered due to the consequences of a 10C temperature rise and 450 nuclear power station melt downs and 1200 spent fuel pool fires.
Let's all debate these issues politely as we circle the drain of collapse.
In future posts on my website, I'll hyper link Justin and Jessica Wildfire and "Just Collapse".
Us "collapseniks" need to stick together, it's not a competition! We're all trying to navigate the perfect storm!
Thanks for this. I will check out the just collapse folks. It sounds like my leanings of community grass roots efforts.
I just finished the book Hospicing Modernity and it has me under a spell.
Next is Breaking together by Jem bendell founder of deep adaptation. He and Katie carr have a leading through collapse course in bay area which I plan on attending. This seems like a pivot of my field of infectious diseases but it isnt because I already see how ecological crises cause dysbiosis worsening flora/fauna. So it feels like a new calling.
You are inspiring me to be more organized and reconsider digital book options. Usually go to libraries. I love taking notes in books, in my notebooks with a million post its, in notes of my phone and really anywhere i can take them, I will. like a crazy person with no notetaking system whatsoever (yet).
We know how to solve these problems. The issue is why we have been prevented from doing so. I posted a link in Notes before to an Australian article Why Is America So Dumb?
Later I thought dumb is completely the wrong word. America is not dumb it is deluded. Willingly deluded. The evidence is clear that America has been a driving force in preventing action on climate change. It has held up over-consumption as a lifestyle ideal. It has indulged in military aggression across the globe destabilising entire regions, costing millions of lives and wrecking environmental havoc.
Delusion, it appears, is America's preferred state of mind and most important export. Why face reality when the culture provides so many convenient fantasies? Armageddon anyone? Doesn't matter what we do to the world, Jesus is likely to turn up at any moment and burn the place down. Climate change is bullshit whee hoo we can drive our V8 pick ups and drill baby drill. Bullshit is so convenient why not just believe it eh? Ball's in your court USA. You fucked the place up. Clean up your shit.
First, who are you? If you feel so confident about what you’re writing, why do you need to hide behind a fake name? It makes you suspect.
As for solving all the resource problems, your issue is you don’t understand systems dynamics. If you solve the resource problem, you create more problems. Namely pollution and environmental degradation. There is no evidence of green growth in the real world. So you are placing the entire weight of your argument on a hypothetical. The empirical data squarely supports my position. Growth and technology are destroying the planet. It’s not even a close call. It’s only a question for people in hard denial, delusional, or otherwise sociopathic people.
What kept our ancestral migratory Hunter-Gatherer clans/bands from going into "overshoot" and maintaining an ecologically balanced self-sustaining lifeway was inter-clan/band territorial disputes. So, we never numbered more than the 5-10M listed in this paper, and reproduction was mostly naturally controlled by 4 yr. breast feeding times, a fairly high predation and accidental injury problem. When our massive human overpopulation currently comes crashing down in a Seneca Curve collapse, we may have offspring who survive, as they must return to a similar clan/band self-sustaining lifeway, if anyone survives the ongoing climate collapse. Our numbers have fallen on at least two occasions to near extinction level 2,000 totals, especially with the 73.5kya eruption of Mt. Toba. Thus, we all have nearly identical DNA from the forced inbreeding. We are falling off the edge of the Seneca Curve cliff, just as our lemming relations are known to do when massively overpopulated and following bad leadership. Sound familiar?
Someone posted one of those "summer family get-together" photos in the notes here the other day. There must have been 50 people, maybe more, and the caption read to paraphrase "my grandmother did this!" Like this was something to be proud of. I thought, someone should have hung her first. Okay, i didn't think that, but it was a horrifying spectacle to me.
A question for you. Do you think we are right now in rapidly escalating decline (that much seems obvious) or full-on collapse? I mean, how do you know when the boundary is crossed, in real-time? Given that when you fall off a cliff you may just think for span there you are flying. I like the depiction of the abandoned city. A big improvement over how they look right now. The idea of us engineering "a just collapse" is hysterically absurd, by the way. A real leg-slapper. And so "us" of the oil age, so believing we are in control.
Yeah, it’s hard to know exactly where we are. The numbers indicate we are at the top of peak wellness, while other indicators show a vast decline. So it depends on who or what… the ecosystems are collapsing. There may be lagging indicators that affect humans. It’s too complicated to simply say one or the other.
I don’t think anyone is under the illusion (my self included) that we will engineer a just collapse. The idea instead, based on realism, is to work on making even the smallest corner of your world more just, which I think is definitely doable.
One glance at us - just the physical state of us in general - will tell you we are most decidedly not at our peak of wellness. For instance, an exercise that is very interesting as social science is to look at old Woodstock festival footage (mute it even better) for all the shirtless folks. Tell me what you see, how the physical condition breaks down statistically. Today? It would be a sea of lard. A mass physical disaster, the same demographic. Obsolescence, doom, however you might frame it grimly. By that measure alone, we are much worse off than we were. Interestingly, that festival took place during the year of our energy zenith.
The idea of making the smallest corner of the world more just, i’d say we’ve done a very good job of that, actually, in the balance. We’ve come a long way. But like everything else, the ecological and social justice i believe has peaked. Conditions will deteriorate from here. But advocating this as an ethos, my immediate thought is who hasn’t been striving for this all along? The ones impervious to this message is who. Otherwise, it’s intuitive.
Yes, peak wellness is a very broad term, but has more to do with rates, like life expectancy and child mortality. It’s up for dispute, but it’s a subjective metric for sure.
I agree justice as an ethos is intuitive for many. I think the how is where discussion is warranted. I see a lot of doomers who don’t see any point in working on anything. I think there’s meaning in working on things, regardless of the outcome… and I think we can improve the outcome to boot. It’s like people are offended I believe this. I don’t know what to do with that honestly.
"peak wellness… has more to do with rates, like life expectancy and child mortality"
Both of those are in decline in the US, by the way. Life expectancy peaked in 2014 or so, and has declined close to four years since. COVID had something to do with that, but it is continuing to decline, post-COVID.
Child mortality is also increasing. But public health agencies are in denial.
When BC had a sudden-infant-death spike at the beginning of the Fukushima melt-down, the BC Coroners Offices wrote it off as "poor parenting practices." Like, the parents were so glued to TV coverage of Fukushima that they didn't notice their infant stopped breathing?
Various North American "hot spots" had similar Fukushima-correlated infant deaths, but I've been unable to find any formal meta-analysis.
BC sudden-infant-death returned to normal after about ten half-lives of I-131.
I think "we" can improve the outcome too, and i think you do a good job of framing about as grandiose as it will stand - at the community level. But you better have a very small community. Beyond this? "We" are only going to make sure it's as bad as it can get. Look at the data out there. Look all the folks, for instance, feigning concern over climate change whose travel habits suggest their mandate is to have the highest personal ecological footprint possible. Suggest just this one thing to them and in comes the litany of justifications. So yeah, strictly curb the "we" part and i agree.
Yeah, for sure. I think the key is to understand there won’t be a critical mass movement anytime soon, and governments aren’t going to save us. There are people fighting for better environmental policy and I am okay with that. If it saves a strip of trees, it’s done something good. Recognizing that won’t be our salvation is vital though. I spend my off time building a small group working on things like mutual aid.
Thank you, Justin, for your article and opening up this conversation. Agree with you that a critical mass political movement and governments are not going to save us. It may be possible to mitigate mitigate ecological collapse through the use of tools -- usable by people everywhere -- for scaling back the extraction (resource) flows and pollution flows that are creating the cascading ecological crises. My e-book, We Can Reverse the Planet's Eco-crises, shows how to design and use one such tool -- called a regenerative decision-making process. Invite you to take a look: https://www.erikkvam.com/we-can-reverse-the-planets-eco-crises/
Grateful for everything you're doing
Amen to saving the strip of trees. I've been involved with the natural sciences for years, projects ostensibly aimed at conservation included, also my own research on which i've published in the journals. The thing that indeed occurs as you go further down that path is that from within the context of a system that is in essence a death-machine, conservation is a doomed initiative, your initiatives are stemming from and dependent upon the very activities that are killing the place, no exceptions, no alternatives. So what are we saving things for this being the case? For what eventuality? Some mythical point where suddenly the system is of benefit to the living planet? Ain't gonna happen. Rather, we saving what we can for that 'day' on which this system goes down the tubes, most of us die, and the rest of life gets some breathing room once more. Okay, so that's not nothing for sure, i can get behind that.
All of us Homo sapiens are born to a place atop Bullshit Mountain. The real honor goes to folks who try mightily to refuse to add to that growing pile.
“Just Collapse” is an absurd phrase, in line with the nonsensical terms “resilient,” “sustainable,” “350.org”, and on down the line of reality-free euphemisms.
Micro-accomplishments are inherently meaningless to the larger process. Striving to do better within an absurd supersystem is fine, an example of a species trying to live within its inherited limitations, but there is no need to lie about it. The rate and force of collapse of a building overwhelm whatever little attempts are made to shore up supports in the foundation beforehand.
Even as the Titanic was going down, there were better and worse choices and actions made by people. Instead of just dropping by to call people’s opinions bullshit, this is a place for respectful discussion. If you’d like to articulate why ultimately acts of resilience will fail, by all means, do so. Otherwise… nah
A “respectful” discussion about collapse, eh?
“Respect” to me is also like an 80s word, devoid of any content now. What should all of us humans “respect” about what humans have done and are doing to our world? Are those of us who are angry about this state of our inherited world supposed to replace that with equanimity that coats the process of destruction and death with praise for - what, exactly?
The Titanic, of course , hit a point of on-rushing collapse that made any “acts of resilience” utterly superfluous. That’s what the meme of “re-arranging deck chairs” on the Titanic” means.
If you don’t want to hear charges of “bullshit” leveled against you or any of your compadres, then close the discussion, and censor anything remotely critical. I’m open to any and all charges of “bullshit” leveled against me -it’s the price of attempting to communicate.
Respectful means not using language like bullshit to start a conversation you are hoping will be one that is productive. A discussion is an exchange of ideas, not insults and soap boxing. I’m a little surprised this needs explaining. I don’t censor ideas, I censor behavior. You are certainly free to express how you feel or your frustrations, but just try to do it without insults and try to address replies faithfully.
Like with the Titanic… yes of course in understand the metaphor. As I tried to explain, there were still really bad choices, and better choices for the people, even the ones that didn’t make it. I don’t care about the ship. The ship is a goner. But there were people saved from death, and also people were possibly saved from undue suffering. And there is life on the planet that can be saved by our actions today. I discuss this more thoroughly in part III.
This post and linked video are a mini-course on climate change and a great service for all who take the time to study them. UN Food and Agriculture Organization is one of the few places one can inferred information on per capita food production; a decrease in per capita food production is one of the leading indicators of collapse per some of the complex systems studies: https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/d1b7ac97-7ad3-4c95-98fd-3568def8a75c/content
Hi Justin, My name is Michael Campi and I just came across your page. I think it's a great idea, and I have a question for you. I used to have a page called Fitness for the Apocalypse. The focus was on practical fitness for an uncertain future. What I am wondering is would you be interested in cross posting some articles when I get them going again? I currently offer tips on Tuesday's as part of a section I call The Right Now Club. I write at https://michaelcampi.substack.com/. I look forward to hearing back if you're interested.
That would be great. Connecting our audiences would be great as well. Maybe we could swap a few cross posts. I have one on the benefits of rucking. I’ve written about creating a ruck club to build skills, fitness and community. Here’s a few:
https://collapsecurriculum.substack.com/p/the-physical-and-mental-health-benefits?publication_id=1214597&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share&isFreemail=true&triedRedirect=true
https://open.substack.com/pub/collapsecurriculum/p/the-best-mental-health-hack-20105?r=8pc4d&utm_medium=ios
Another excellent dive into the realm of collapse.
Justin and I differ on the issue of extinction, I'm firmly of the opinion that our days are numbered due to the consequences of a 10C temperature rise and 450 nuclear power station melt downs and 1200 spent fuel pool fires.
Let's all debate these issues politely as we circle the drain of collapse.
In future posts on my website, I'll hyper link Justin and Jessica Wildfire and "Just Collapse".
Us "collapseniks" need to stick together, it's not a competition! We're all trying to navigate the perfect storm!
https://kevinhester.live/2019/09/05/collapse-the-only-realistic-scenario/
Slim hope in part III admittedly. Maybe reduction of suffering.
https://open.substack.com/pub/collapsecurriculum/p/preparing-for-collapse-is-necessary?r=8pc4d&utm_medium=ios
Very interesting! Definitely a realistic look at the future.
Thanks for this. I will check out the just collapse folks. It sounds like my leanings of community grass roots efforts.
I just finished the book Hospicing Modernity and it has me under a spell.
Next is Breaking together by Jem bendell founder of deep adaptation. He and Katie carr have a leading through collapse course in bay area which I plan on attending. This seems like a pivot of my field of infectious diseases but it isnt because I already see how ecological crises cause dysbiosis worsening flora/fauna. So it feels like a new calling.
What is herringtons book called?
Breaking Together is also free on Jem’s website and also fantastic!
Thanks and good to know! I have a debilitating addiction to physical book copies.
Yes! So much better. I take all my notes in a physical notebook, and use index cards.
You are inspiring me to be more organized and reconsider digital book options. Usually go to libraries. I love taking notes in books, in my notebooks with a million post its, in notes of my phone and really anywhere i can take them, I will. like a crazy person with no notetaking system whatsoever (yet).
Herrington’s book is called “5 Insights for avoiding global collapse” which is an amazing work and free to download here: https://www.mdpi.com/books/monograph/6206-five-insights-for-avoiding-global-collapse
We know how to solve these problems. The issue is why we have been prevented from doing so. I posted a link in Notes before to an Australian article Why Is America So Dumb?
Later I thought dumb is completely the wrong word. America is not dumb it is deluded. Willingly deluded. The evidence is clear that America has been a driving force in preventing action on climate change. It has held up over-consumption as a lifestyle ideal. It has indulged in military aggression across the globe destabilising entire regions, costing millions of lives and wrecking environmental havoc.
Delusion, it appears, is America's preferred state of mind and most important export. Why face reality when the culture provides so many convenient fantasies? Armageddon anyone? Doesn't matter what we do to the world, Jesus is likely to turn up at any moment and burn the place down. Climate change is bullshit whee hoo we can drive our V8 pick ups and drill baby drill. Bullshit is so convenient why not just believe it eh? Ball's in your court USA. You fucked the place up. Clean up your shit.
What does “we know how to solve these problems” mean? Like we can just technology fix the issues and continue forward consuming the planet?
Nominate the particular issues you think cannot be solved. I believe the solutions exist to all our resource issues.
First, who are you? If you feel so confident about what you’re writing, why do you need to hide behind a fake name? It makes you suspect.
As for solving all the resource problems, your issue is you don’t understand systems dynamics. If you solve the resource problem, you create more problems. Namely pollution and environmental degradation. There is no evidence of green growth in the real world. So you are placing the entire weight of your argument on a hypothetical. The empirical data squarely supports my position. Growth and technology are destroying the planet. It’s not even a close call. It’s only a question for people in hard denial, delusional, or otherwise sociopathic people.
In case you missed this.
https://open.substack.com/pub/blindboy/p/dystopian-desires?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=i08h
What kept our ancestral migratory Hunter-Gatherer clans/bands from going into "overshoot" and maintaining an ecologically balanced self-sustaining lifeway was inter-clan/band territorial disputes. So, we never numbered more than the 5-10M listed in this paper, and reproduction was mostly naturally controlled by 4 yr. breast feeding times, a fairly high predation and accidental injury problem. When our massive human overpopulation currently comes crashing down in a Seneca Curve collapse, we may have offspring who survive, as they must return to a similar clan/band self-sustaining lifeway, if anyone survives the ongoing climate collapse. Our numbers have fallen on at least two occasions to near extinction level 2,000 totals, especially with the 73.5kya eruption of Mt. Toba. Thus, we all have nearly identical DNA from the forced inbreeding. We are falling off the edge of the Seneca Curve cliff, just as our lemming relations are known to do when massively overpopulated and following bad leadership. Sound familiar?