I've reached the conclusion that our political systems are one of the very last places to look to for any type of 'positive' response to our predicament of ecological overshoot and its symptom predicaments (e.g., sink overloading, resource depletion, etc.).
As they often (always?) do, the ruling caste of society (the political system being one component of this group of world decision-makers and influencers) has leveraged a 'crisis' in order to meet their primary goal: maintain/expand the wealth-generation/-extraction systems that provide their revenue streams.
'Renewables', along with the notions of 'electrifying everything' and 'net zero', are part and parcel of this strategy. They are designed to reduce cognitive dissonance as well as market/sell more industrial products and, more importantly, keep the golden goose of perpetual growth stumbling along for another quarter or two. It also happens to result in their ability to siphon more and more wealth towards the advantaged few while the disadvantaged many bear the burden of their misguided/misinformed actions.
If our 'leaders' were truly intent upon mitigating the inevitable consequences of overshoot, they would be advocating a cessation of economic growth. In fact, if they were truly interested in the welfare of all, and aware of the physics and biology of ecological overshoot and the dire predicament we are all caught in, they would be attempting to reverse growth, focus our limited and quickly diminishing resources on relocalising as much as possible, and decommissioning all those dangerous complexities we've scattered across the globe (e.g., nuclear power plants, chemical production/storage facilities, biosafety labs, etc.).
Instead, they are doubling and tripling down on the very processes that have led us into overshoot by selling us narratives that more complex technology and economic growth will 'solve' our dilemma. Their actions/decisions are ensuring the collapse that always accompanies overshoot will be even more monumental in its scope and impact, perhaps to the point that there will never be another complex society arising from the ashes of this last, desperate experiment of those story-telling, tool-using apes whose 'success' guaranteed its global demise.
Thank you, Justin - another clear and concise analysis of the predicament.
I don't know if it's going to be more difficult to accept for people who have never had to bear huge losses before and therefore have no coping mechanisms for that, or for those who did and are perhaps too traumatised from whatever losses they had previously. It's a conundrum all right. It would be interesting to do an analysis of the personalities, values and general backgrounds of collapse aware people who are taking action while understanding that things are going to be bleak now one way or another.
That would be fascinating to know. I have thoughts, trying to think how to articulate them. I think one way or another, seeing some injustice at a young age, or seeing the importance of justice for victims as something connected to this. Then simply being exposed to the mountain of evidence that the entire planet is a victim of industrial civilization.
A parent leaving an abusive spouse for example. The parent leaving (especially for women and especially some time ago) is likely going to be its own hell. The income hit can be severe. But leaving the abuse is still better.
Excellent analogy for communicating that idea to an audience who is new to collapse etc. I can already see your writer brain clicking and working on an article in the background while you do other stuff. :)
I think the justice/injustice connection is there for everyone I've met who is collapse aware. Quite a few have untangled themselves from religious world views they grew up in - so already know a thing or two about cult mindsets and the social fallout of leaving. Almost all of them cared about animals from little.
Quite a few of them aren't neurotypical, which opens up another question for me: Are modern humans, and especially the current neurotypical humans, the equivalent of ISA Brown battery breed chickens? Cities are the batteries. ISA Browns were bred not to have nervous breakdowns in the awful arrangements they are forced to live in, and are a pretty dulled-down bird who couldn't survive in the wild. 5,000 -10,000 years of city-centred life just might lead to gene pool changes. All domesticated breeds that weren't bred to problem-solve have dulled down compared to their wild ancestors - sensory, and thinking. What if humans domesticating themselves has had similar effects on most of them (DNA changes including epigenetics, plus nurture)? It would explain the nature disconnect, the groupthink, the poor problem solving...
Most of us are aware this - but lesser of evils is an adult reality of modern life with 8 billion humans wishing to have all the basics. The digging of mines for resources necessary and some dead birds and some noise here and there for this clean-er huge energy transition sucks but is still not as bad as the damage being done to every living thing on earth 24/7 by petrol/oil products. Maybe cleaner hydrogen may finally happen but that may have some downsides as well. When you put this Debbie Downer vibe out there - you are saying better to leave the status quo oil nightmare - which is wrong. Or better yet - how about your solutions that are so perfect that there are no negative side effects to provide energy for billions of humans? Please enlighten me.
The answer is explained in detail in the post. I addressed “the transition is less bad than climate” and what my solutions are. The first step is accepting that our way of life is not sustainable. rather than trying to perpetuate it, try to stop it.
I agree to a certain extent but none of us is going back to life without electricity and there are still a couple billion humans that would like to have basic electricity and so even if most of us in the modern world make the effort to lessen our carbon footprints - which is 100% necessary to avoid worst effects of Global Warming - these billions of people want to live a in the modern world like the majority of humans do and so lesser of evils of new clean-er energies is reality. Words have power and you were already taken out of context on a Notes quote. Maybe focus on solutions first. God bless this human made mess!
Interesting. The issue I have is providing solutions when people believe we can keep all of this modernity. Until they understand this isn’t physically or politically possible, they can’t accept new ideas.
Collapse isn’t an event… it is a process that is happening right now. That’s why I talk about it. We aren’t going to solve the climate crisis nor people’s thirst for energy.
Wow - we aren't going to solve the climate crisis? Geez louise! There has been some progress in certain countries toward the Paris Climate Accords. The first thing to do is save and fix our Democracy - get dark money out of elections aka Citizens United. Every single important issue will not be solved until we save and fix our Democracy - the cart before the horse. Yes - no real progress will happen but millions of us are changing our consumption habits and pollution has come down in the USA. Every little effort adds up exponentially = Ecology 101. You seem to lack hope and imagination. Without these the battle is already lost.
I'm just not living in a fantasy land. Things have never been as bad for the ecology as they are right now and they are trending to get worse. The United States has never produced more fossil fuels that right now. Same thing for the world. Facing the reality is challenging for people who want to continue to believe we can just keep doing what we've always done, but with some sort of magical "renewable" energy source. We aren't going to "fix" our democracy either. Don't be naive. The people with the money and the power want to keep their money and power, and they make the laws. If you want to maintain hope in a hopeless situation, doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result, go for it. The purpose of my work is to persuade people to think outside that box that the ruling class would love to keep you inside of. Bottom line... don't have hope in hopeless things. I have plenty of hope and imagination, but they are in things that are worthy of the same.
You speak some truth but I am sorry - agree to disagree about tearing down the entire system like many young/old 'naive' idealists and extremists MAGA cult want to do for similar and totally different, fed up reasons. Here is a reply I recently gave to another I respect here on substack but has similar tear it all down ethos but with him it's Capitalism in its crappy current form - which is more unrealistic because the aftermath of such a scenario will be worse in a country where all the morons have most of the guns. Just end up with a worse situation than the one you were in a rush to bring down. During my college years Obama was running for president and I actually made a bet with my black Political Science professor that he would win - he said never in our lifetime - well not only did he win - he won twice comfortably proving Democracy works if people get off their lazy asses and vote. Progress is slow but tearing it all down will slow it down even more. Here is what I said to him recently - Love you and your ideal future realm. I have a similar utopian vision, as I believe many other dreamers do as well. Yet just a couple things. Do you know the expression throwing out the baby with the bath water? You consistently talk about post capitalism and yet I still have yet to read you describe a viable working alternative of exchange of goods and services that will keep a country of 330 million citizens chugging along, content and covered with the basics of survival - food and shelter. You have gathered a decent following of folks who read your ideas and I am sure some are influenced by them. So You have some power now and with this power comes responsibility. When you or other idealistic young folks or older - preach an end to capitalism with no detailed, educated/experienced expert informed back up plan - is irresponsible. I cut the MAGA crowd some slack with their tear it all down ethos because most of them are uneducated and get their news/info from weak sources like talking heads on facebook and now tik tok - with no higher educations or even backgrounds in the often bizarre concepts they push onto their MAGA cult followers. The anger with our current late stage horrible and rigged capitalism is what ties together both the extreme right MAGA cult and far left intellectuals like you (and me) and many in the center who area also fed up with this unfair economic system. Nonetheless, this far from desirable system need not be torn down completely. It took much blood, sweat and tears to build the unfair system and country we all live in. But we have good bones or framework as they say in the property fixer up world. The Constitution is awesome and is a evolving document of laws, regardless of what originalists say -currently with 27 Amendments. The dictionary definition of Capitalism is - an economic and political system in which a country's trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit. Okay - so I have no issue with private ownership - do you? I also believe in collective ownership - do you? The two need not be mutually exclusive. I believe that with some major tweaks to our current system - as in the rich paying their fair share of taxes to provide the necessary social safety nets (and all the other cool stuff you mentioned) for guaranteed failed business ventures - as in 95% of all businesses fail within first 5 years - a fact Marx wrote about 200 years ago but Business schools don't mention much when speaking about the American dream - insuring all have the basics for a life of simple survival and dignity - and finally my radical idea of literally tossing the stock market system as I have have written about for years, which would lead to less monopolies, inequality, and is more sustainable through hyper-local economies where businesses grow organically, only as big as they can handle scaling wise. I have no problem with people getting rich but not perverted, rigged system rich that exploits and keeps the majority of citizens down - as our current version of capitalism does. Bottom line - to preach tearing it all down is not intelligent, is myopic and dangerous. With no solid alternative system plan in place to keep the huge US machine going that provides an abundance of food and shelter for all - even though many cannot afford it anymore - is dangerous and irresponsible for thinkers and visionaries like yourself to promote. Because the anarchy that will ensue in this country of violence and violent history will make life miserable for everyone - probably for generations before some weirdo fascist dictator backed by rich people takes over - which Trump threat represents, and this has almost happened before in our short history. But We the People - all the People must stick together for a better future for all citizens. And working in factories and warehouses is good and necessary work in a big country - and not everyone is a creative who wants to write and thank goodness because that creates balance in the human community. Finally, the pen is mightier than the sword and millions of innocents have died throughout history based on extreme ideologies - so please keep this in mind when throwing out the baby with the bath water as far as capitalism goes. Thank you.
I've reached the conclusion that our political systems are one of the very last places to look to for any type of 'positive' response to our predicament of ecological overshoot and its symptom predicaments (e.g., sink overloading, resource depletion, etc.).
As they often (always?) do, the ruling caste of society (the political system being one component of this group of world decision-makers and influencers) has leveraged a 'crisis' in order to meet their primary goal: maintain/expand the wealth-generation/-extraction systems that provide their revenue streams.
'Renewables', along with the notions of 'electrifying everything' and 'net zero', are part and parcel of this strategy. They are designed to reduce cognitive dissonance as well as market/sell more industrial products and, more importantly, keep the golden goose of perpetual growth stumbling along for another quarter or two. It also happens to result in their ability to siphon more and more wealth towards the advantaged few while the disadvantaged many bear the burden of their misguided/misinformed actions.
If our 'leaders' were truly intent upon mitigating the inevitable consequences of overshoot, they would be advocating a cessation of economic growth. In fact, if they were truly interested in the welfare of all, and aware of the physics and biology of ecological overshoot and the dire predicament we are all caught in, they would be attempting to reverse growth, focus our limited and quickly diminishing resources on relocalising as much as possible, and decommissioning all those dangerous complexities we've scattered across the globe (e.g., nuclear power plants, chemical production/storage facilities, biosafety labs, etc.).
Instead, they are doubling and tripling down on the very processes that have led us into overshoot by selling us narratives that more complex technology and economic growth will 'solve' our dilemma. Their actions/decisions are ensuring the collapse that always accompanies overshoot will be even more monumental in its scope and impact, perhaps to the point that there will never be another complex society arising from the ashes of this last, desperate experiment of those story-telling, tool-using apes whose 'success' guaranteed its global demise.
Agreed. Great articulation of the reality.
Excellent comment...it's lovely to read such clear, concise, but not oversimplified articulation of these issues.
Well said, Justin.
Thank you, Justin - another clear and concise analysis of the predicament.
I don't know if it's going to be more difficult to accept for people who have never had to bear huge losses before and therefore have no coping mechanisms for that, or for those who did and are perhaps too traumatised from whatever losses they had previously. It's a conundrum all right. It would be interesting to do an analysis of the personalities, values and general backgrounds of collapse aware people who are taking action while understanding that things are going to be bleak now one way or another.
That would be fascinating to know. I have thoughts, trying to think how to articulate them. I think one way or another, seeing some injustice at a young age, or seeing the importance of justice for victims as something connected to this. Then simply being exposed to the mountain of evidence that the entire planet is a victim of industrial civilization.
A parent leaving an abusive spouse for example. The parent leaving (especially for women and especially some time ago) is likely going to be its own hell. The income hit can be severe. But leaving the abuse is still better.
Excellent analogy for communicating that idea to an audience who is new to collapse etc. I can already see your writer brain clicking and working on an article in the background while you do other stuff. :)
I think the justice/injustice connection is there for everyone I've met who is collapse aware. Quite a few have untangled themselves from religious world views they grew up in - so already know a thing or two about cult mindsets and the social fallout of leaving. Almost all of them cared about animals from little.
Quite a few of them aren't neurotypical, which opens up another question for me: Are modern humans, and especially the current neurotypical humans, the equivalent of ISA Brown battery breed chickens? Cities are the batteries. ISA Browns were bred not to have nervous breakdowns in the awful arrangements they are forced to live in, and are a pretty dulled-down bird who couldn't survive in the wild. 5,000 -10,000 years of city-centred life just might lead to gene pool changes. All domesticated breeds that weren't bred to problem-solve have dulled down compared to their wild ancestors - sensory, and thinking. What if humans domesticating themselves has had similar effects on most of them (DNA changes including epigenetics, plus nurture)? It would explain the nature disconnect, the groupthink, the poor problem solving...
Most of us are aware this - but lesser of evils is an adult reality of modern life with 8 billion humans wishing to have all the basics. The digging of mines for resources necessary and some dead birds and some noise here and there for this clean-er huge energy transition sucks but is still not as bad as the damage being done to every living thing on earth 24/7 by petrol/oil products. Maybe cleaner hydrogen may finally happen but that may have some downsides as well. When you put this Debbie Downer vibe out there - you are saying better to leave the status quo oil nightmare - which is wrong. Or better yet - how about your solutions that are so perfect that there are no negative side effects to provide energy for billions of humans? Please enlighten me.
The answer is explained in detail in the post. I addressed “the transition is less bad than climate” and what my solutions are. The first step is accepting that our way of life is not sustainable. rather than trying to perpetuate it, try to stop it.
I agree to a certain extent but none of us is going back to life without electricity and there are still a couple billion humans that would like to have basic electricity and so even if most of us in the modern world make the effort to lessen our carbon footprints - which is 100% necessary to avoid worst effects of Global Warming - these billions of people want to live a in the modern world like the majority of humans do and so lesser of evils of new clean-er energies is reality. Words have power and you were already taken out of context on a Notes quote. Maybe focus on solutions first. God bless this human made mess!
Interesting. The issue I have is providing solutions when people believe we can keep all of this modernity. Until they understand this isn’t physically or politically possible, they can’t accept new ideas.
Collapse isn’t an event… it is a process that is happening right now. That’s why I talk about it. We aren’t going to solve the climate crisis nor people’s thirst for energy.
Wow - we aren't going to solve the climate crisis? Geez louise! There has been some progress in certain countries toward the Paris Climate Accords. The first thing to do is save and fix our Democracy - get dark money out of elections aka Citizens United. Every single important issue will not be solved until we save and fix our Democracy - the cart before the horse. Yes - no real progress will happen but millions of us are changing our consumption habits and pollution has come down in the USA. Every little effort adds up exponentially = Ecology 101. You seem to lack hope and imagination. Without these the battle is already lost.
I'm just not living in a fantasy land. Things have never been as bad for the ecology as they are right now and they are trending to get worse. The United States has never produced more fossil fuels that right now. Same thing for the world. Facing the reality is challenging for people who want to continue to believe we can just keep doing what we've always done, but with some sort of magical "renewable" energy source. We aren't going to "fix" our democracy either. Don't be naive. The people with the money and the power want to keep their money and power, and they make the laws. If you want to maintain hope in a hopeless situation, doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result, go for it. The purpose of my work is to persuade people to think outside that box that the ruling class would love to keep you inside of. Bottom line... don't have hope in hopeless things. I have plenty of hope and imagination, but they are in things that are worthy of the same.
You speak some truth but I am sorry - agree to disagree about tearing down the entire system like many young/old 'naive' idealists and extremists MAGA cult want to do for similar and totally different, fed up reasons. Here is a reply I recently gave to another I respect here on substack but has similar tear it all down ethos but with him it's Capitalism in its crappy current form - which is more unrealistic because the aftermath of such a scenario will be worse in a country where all the morons have most of the guns. Just end up with a worse situation than the one you were in a rush to bring down. During my college years Obama was running for president and I actually made a bet with my black Political Science professor that he would win - he said never in our lifetime - well not only did he win - he won twice comfortably proving Democracy works if people get off their lazy asses and vote. Progress is slow but tearing it all down will slow it down even more. Here is what I said to him recently - Love you and your ideal future realm. I have a similar utopian vision, as I believe many other dreamers do as well. Yet just a couple things. Do you know the expression throwing out the baby with the bath water? You consistently talk about post capitalism and yet I still have yet to read you describe a viable working alternative of exchange of goods and services that will keep a country of 330 million citizens chugging along, content and covered with the basics of survival - food and shelter. You have gathered a decent following of folks who read your ideas and I am sure some are influenced by them. So You have some power now and with this power comes responsibility. When you or other idealistic young folks or older - preach an end to capitalism with no detailed, educated/experienced expert informed back up plan - is irresponsible. I cut the MAGA crowd some slack with their tear it all down ethos because most of them are uneducated and get their news/info from weak sources like talking heads on facebook and now tik tok - with no higher educations or even backgrounds in the often bizarre concepts they push onto their MAGA cult followers. The anger with our current late stage horrible and rigged capitalism is what ties together both the extreme right MAGA cult and far left intellectuals like you (and me) and many in the center who area also fed up with this unfair economic system. Nonetheless, this far from desirable system need not be torn down completely. It took much blood, sweat and tears to build the unfair system and country we all live in. But we have good bones or framework as they say in the property fixer up world. The Constitution is awesome and is a evolving document of laws, regardless of what originalists say -currently with 27 Amendments. The dictionary definition of Capitalism is - an economic and political system in which a country's trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit. Okay - so I have no issue with private ownership - do you? I also believe in collective ownership - do you? The two need not be mutually exclusive. I believe that with some major tweaks to our current system - as in the rich paying their fair share of taxes to provide the necessary social safety nets (and all the other cool stuff you mentioned) for guaranteed failed business ventures - as in 95% of all businesses fail within first 5 years - a fact Marx wrote about 200 years ago but Business schools don't mention much when speaking about the American dream - insuring all have the basics for a life of simple survival and dignity - and finally my radical idea of literally tossing the stock market system as I have have written about for years, which would lead to less monopolies, inequality, and is more sustainable through hyper-local economies where businesses grow organically, only as big as they can handle scaling wise. I have no problem with people getting rich but not perverted, rigged system rich that exploits and keeps the majority of citizens down - as our current version of capitalism does. Bottom line - to preach tearing it all down is not intelligent, is myopic and dangerous. With no solid alternative system plan in place to keep the huge US machine going that provides an abundance of food and shelter for all - even though many cannot afford it anymore - is dangerous and irresponsible for thinkers and visionaries like yourself to promote. Because the anarchy that will ensue in this country of violence and violent history will make life miserable for everyone - probably for generations before some weirdo fascist dictator backed by rich people takes over - which Trump threat represents, and this has almost happened before in our short history. But We the People - all the People must stick together for a better future for all citizens. And working in factories and warehouses is good and necessary work in a big country - and not everyone is a creative who wants to write and thank goodness because that creates balance in the human community. Finally, the pen is mightier than the sword and millions of innocents have died throughout history based on extreme ideologies - so please keep this in mind when throwing out the baby with the bath water as far as capitalism goes. Thank you.